Antonelli one finish away from youngest title in Formula One history

MEXICO CITY — Kimi Antonelli arrives at this weekend's Mexico City Grand Prix standing on the edge of Formula One history. One careful, composed drive is all that separates the 20-year-old Mercedes driver from a place in the record books that no young driver has reached — and from ending one of Italian sport's longest waits.

Antonelli needs to finish ninth or better on Sunday to clinch the drivers' championship. Do so, and he will take the title aged 20 years and 68 days, becoming the youngest world champion in Formula One history and lowering the record held by Sebastian Vettel by more than three years. He would also become Italy's first champion since Alberto Ascari won for Ferrari in 1953, closing a gap of 73 years during which his country has become synonymous with Formula One without producing another champion.

Last Sunday's victory in the United States Grand Prix in Austin was Antonelli's ninth in 18 races this season, and it left only two drivers with any mathematical route to the title. His Mercedes team-mate George Russell trails by 123 points and Ferrari's Lewis Hamilton by 124, and both can only stop him by winning in Mexico while Antonelli finishes 10th or worse.

The maths are brutally simple

On recent form, that combination looks remote to the point of fanciful. In his last 11 races, Antonelli has scored nine podium finishes, one fifth place and one 15th. The 15th place was only his second non-points-scoring race in 18 outings this season, a campaign that began with second place in Australia followed by five wins. It is the consistency of a champion: fast when it matters, careful when it counts, and almost never beaten by the occasion.

Out of the car, Antonelli remains boyish and precocious. With the visor down, he has proved he has both the talent and the mentality to win and remain, mostly, unflappable under pressure.

"I’m going to approach it with the same mindset," he said in Texas. "Trying to have as much fun as possible, but trying to fight for another win. It’s best to finish on a high and that is my goal."

His team boss Toto Wolff, who drafted the teenage Antonelli into the Mercedes seat last season following the departure of seven-time champion Hamilton, is already anticipating a celebration, probably this weekend, with the next race in Brazil as a backstop. "It’s going to be a tequila party," Wolff said. "Or if not, it will a caipirinha party the weekend afterwards."

Mercedes could have more than one reason to celebrate in Mexico. The team could also clinch the constructors' championship at the high-altitude Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, turning a coronation for their young driver into a double triumph. For a team that took a gamble on youth when Hamilton left, it would be vindication of the boldest kind.

The rivals waiting for a slip

Antonelli will not be favourite to win on Sunday, knowing that on this occasion it is more important simply to finish well than to win. That caution could open the door for others, and the most obvious beneficiary is four-time champion Max Verstappen. The Red Bull driver has triumphed five times in Mexico, arrives in strong recent form, and has won twice before last Sunday's race in Austin. The high altitude of the Mexico City circuit has often suited Red Bull, and Verstappen will sense an opportunity to add another victory at a track he has made his own.

World champion Lando Norris, who won from pole last year for McLaren, is also due a change of fortunes, while Ferrari's Charles Leclerc and Hamilton should be contenders.

There is a poignant subplot for Ferrari's loyal tifosi. The scarlet scuderia had a chance to sign Antonelli as a boy of great potential, but said he was too young. Former president Luca di Montezemolo told Spain's AS newspaper last month that he regretted the missed opportunity. "I am a Ferrari man and delighted to see what Antonelli is doing," di Montezemolo said. "But what I do regret is that Ferrari had the chance to sign him and they didn’t. A great opportunity vanished, but it was better for him – to be such a young Italian driving a Ferrari would have been terrible pressure."

Perez brings the party to the Reforma

At the back of the grid, but at the heart of the local celebrations, will be Cadillac's Mexican driver Sergio Perez, who is set for his 300th Grand Prix start this weekend. The 36-year-old, who on Wednesday announced a contract extension that will keep him at the American team through to 2029, has been a home favourite for years, and he gave his fans an early taste of the fiesta before a wheel had turned in anger.

Perez turned one of Mexico City's grandest avenues into a celebration of national pride on Wednesday, as fans packed the Paseo de la Reforma ahead of his milestone race. An estimated 100,000 people gathered for the Cadillac driver's showrun, his fourth in Mexico during his Formula One career. Mexican flags lined the avenue, along with giant images of the 36-year-old, as Perez drove the Formula Two adapted car, performed tyre-smoking doughnuts and stopped near the Angel of Independence monument to greet fans.

It was a reminder that this weekend belongs in part to Mexico itself: to its fans, its avenue, and its favourite son reaching 300 starts in front of them. A memorable weekend is in prospect, and if Antonelli finishes ninth or better, it will end with the youngest champion Formula One has ever known.