Svitolina Stuns Sabalenka 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 to Reach WTA Finals Semi-Finals and End Her Rival's Season

Elina Svitolina brought Aryna Sabalenka's season to a close at the WTA Finals on Friday, winning their group match 6-3, 3-6, 6-1 in Indian Wells to claim the last place in the semi-finals. The Ukrainian, champion at the season-ending event in 2018, stayed steady through a deciding set in which her opponent lost the final six games, completing a comeback that had looked unlikely when she lost her first three sets of the tournament.

The win was Svitolina's first over Sabalenka in more than six years. The Belarusian had won their last five meetings, including all three on hard courts, and still leads their head-to-head 6-2. But on Friday evening in the California desert, the 32-year-old redirected Sabalenka's power throughout the one-hour-and-53-minute contest, breaking serve six times and converting six of her eight break points.

Svitolina finished runner-up in her group to Mirra Andreeva and will meet Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova in the last four on Saturday. Andreeva, the French Open champion, faces Jessica Pegula in the other semi-final for a place in Sunday's showpiece.

A first set that slipped away from Sabalenka

Sabalenka made the start she wanted, firing an angled forehand winner to break serve in the opening game. But the control did not last. She lost six of the next seven games, was broken to love twice, and handed over the opening set as her game unravelled. Svitolina, who had to save two break points at 3-3 by leaning on her second serve, took the next two games to close out the set.

The numbers told the story of a match decided by steadiness rather than firepower. Svitolina hit 21 winners to Sabalenka's 20, but committed 11 fewer unforced errors, and her ability to absorb pace and redirect it kept Sabalenka from ever settling into a rhythm.

Sabalenka's response in the second set was strong. Cutting down her unforced errors, she broke twice, moved 5-1 ahead and served out the set at the second attempt to force a decider. For a moment, the match looked as though it was swinging back towards the former world No. 1.

The decider unravels

The decider brought the frustration back. After giving up an early lead, Sabalenka threw her racquet to the ground, and Svitolina, unmoved, turned the set around quickly. Sabalenka saved two break points, but a double fault set up a third, and the world No. 6 kept her composure to serve out the match. At times Sabalenka crouched at the back of the court after losing a point, her frustration visible as a semi-final place slipped away.

Svitolina, by contrast, spoke afterwards of staying in the moment. The 32-year-old said the match had been extremely tough, especially mentally, and that she had tried to play one point at a time. It was the approach that carried her through a week in which she had first lost her opening match to Andreeva.

Svitolina is appearing at the tournament for the first time since backing up her 2018 triumph by reaching the 2019 final, and this season she returned to the top 10 for the first time since 2021.

A season without a major for Sabalenka

The result sealed a disappointing finish to a year that had promised much more for Sabalenka. It was the first season since 2022 in which the Belarusian failed to win a major title, after defeats in the finals of the Australian Open and the US Open. She had arrived in Indian Wells chasing a first title at the season-ending event, and the defeat followed an even heavier one two days earlier, when she lost the last 11 games of her match against Andreeva.

For all the late-season stumbles, Sabalenka's year was still the most consistent on the women's tour by the numbers. She finished with a 47-11 record, an 80.0 percent win rate that was the best on tour, and three titles, including the rare Sunshine Double of Indian Wells and Miami. She also recorded 43 straight-set wins, more than any other player this season.

It was not enough, however, to keep her at the top of the rankings. After 99 weeks as world No. 1, she was overtaken by Rybakina following their meeting in the US Open title match in September. Sabalenka has reached at least the semi-finals in 13 of the last 16 Grand Slams she has played, yet she has now lost five major finals against four wins over the past four seasons.

Andreeva completes a perfect group stage

Andreeva has been the story of the group stage. Guaranteed to finish top on her tournament debut after beating Svitolina and Sabalenka, the 19-year-old completed a perfect group record by beating Diana Shnaider 6-2, 6-1 in 55 minutes, winning 12 of the last 13 games. Shnaider had been a late call-up after Karolina Muchova withdrew through illness.

Andreeva is the youngest player to reach the knockout stage in 17 years and has passed Serena Williams as the youngest to win her first three matches at the Finals this century, dropping just 11 of 47 games along the way. She now plays Pegula, who reached the last four by saving a match point to beat Noskova.

For Svitolina, the semi-final against Noskova is a chance to extend a return to the game's upper reaches that few would have predicted at the start of the week. She arrived in Indian Wells as a player who had not been to the Finals in seven years, lost her first three sets, and now stands two wins from the title.