Skubal heads MLB free agency as lockout clock ticks

Baseball's offseason has opened with one extraordinary prize, a thin market around him, and a calendar that may shut everything down. Days after the Milwaukee Brewers won the first World Series title in franchise history, attention has turned to Tarik Skubal and to option decisions in Baltimore, Cincinnati and Arizona.

Skubal is the clear headliner. He finished 2026 at 12-7 with a 2.72 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 158 2/3 innings across 26 starts for Detroit and Los Angeles, after a deadline trade to the Dodgers. He won the American League Cy Young Award in 2024 and 2025.

The $355 million average — and why it is only a projection

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel surveyed 27 industry insiders, and the average projection came back at eight years and $355 million, an average annual value of about $44.6 million. That would top Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers, still the largest guarantee ever for a pitcher, and clear Max Scherzer's record pitcher average annual value of $43.3 million.

The spread matters: seven projections were $300 million or less, seven were $300-350 million, nine were $351-400 million, and four exceeded $400 million, up to $500 million. So 13 of 27 projected at least $351 million. None of this is a contract — only a survey, to be settled by negotiation, medical reviews and bidding.

Health is central. Skubal had Tommy John surgery in college, elbow surgery in 2022 and another elbow procedure in May 2026 to remove loose bodies. His agent, Scott Boras, negotiated the Scherzer and Gerrit Cole deals used as reference points. The Dodgers, Mets and Tigers were most often named as contenders; Bleacher Report's early prediction had the Mets signing him — a reminder that predictions are not agreements.

The clock: November signings, then a likely freeze

Timing may matter as much as money. Twenty-one of the 27 insiders predicted Skubal would sign before the current collective bargaining agreement expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on December 1. A lockout is widely expected from December 2 if no new deal is reached, freezing signings, trades and contact between clubs and players on 40-man rosters.

That prospect shapes the calendar. Free agents can sign with other clubs from 5 p.m. ET on November 2; option decisions and qualifying offers are also due that day, with the qualifying offer at one year and $23.15 million. General managers meet November 10-12 in Las Vegas. The central dispute is the owners' push for a salary cap and floor — reportedly $245.3 million and $154.1 million for 2027 — which the players' union has long opposed. The expectation of a stoppage gives players seeking security and clubs seeking certainty a reason to move in November.

Baltimore moves on from Luis Robert Jr.

On October 31, Baltimore declined its $20 million club option on outfielder Luis Robert Jr. for 2027, paying a $2 million buyout and sending him into free agency. The Orioles had claimed Robert off waivers from the New York Mets on August 31; he went 2-for-11 with a double and a home run in three games for Baltimore before injuring his left hamstring. His broader 2026 line — .221 with 11 home runs and 26 RBIs in 61 games across the Mets and Orioles — did not justify $20 million for a player who has struggled to stay on the field.

Baltimore's 40-man roster fell to 33, and the club still wants a right-handed-hitting center fielder. It simply would not pay that price for Robert, a former All-Star whose first free agency will test how the market values power and speed when durability is in doubt.

Cincinnati and Arizona: bets on the open market

In Cincinnati, reliever Emilio Pagán declined his $10 million player option for 2027, becoming a free agent unless he signs a new Reds deal by 4 p.m. CT on November 2. Pagán went 5-1 with a 3.38 ERA in 2026, converting 25 of 28 save chances after missing almost two months with a hamstring strain. The Reds also declined mutual options on Eugenio Suárez ($16 million) and Pierce Johnson ($8 million, with a $1 million buyout), leaving their 40-man roster at 35.

Arizona's Michael Soroka made a similar calculation, with one correction to early shorthand: he declined his end of a $10 million mutual option — not a player option — in a decision reported October 30, receiving a $1 million buyout. Soroka posted a 3.41 ERA with 114 strikeouts in 116 innings across 22 appearances, 21 of them starts. He earned $1.35 million in bonuses after reaching 20 starts, which explains some early confusion, but his final total was 21 starts. Arizona has shown interest in a reunion, and Soroka said at season's end, "I would absolutely love to return and just kind of take care of some unfinished business." MLB Trade Rumors put a two-year deal in the $10-12 million range as a floor.

What to watch next

The next week will show whether the November rush is real. If Skubal signs quickly, he will set the ceiling for every pitcher behind him; if he waits, the market may cool into a freeze. For now, no headline deal has been struck — only a projected record, a looming labour deadline, and three fresh free agents with something to prove.